The "I know its only February and Mrs Grey is going to scream "Noooooo" but..." transfer thread

Bazshuayi

Please note I resisted any comments regarding regular first 'teasers' (it wasnt easy!)

Fortuneseeker

Baz, That is what G&S are. ☹️

OldCastleSwift

buffybegood said:

ASLEFshrugged said:

Still got three years on his contract but £25.2m release clause

Certainly an upgrade on Masuaku as competition for Cressers

No way, imo, that we're paying anything like that for a FB when we've so many other positions to fill.

Left back is a priority for me. Cresswell has had a good season, but needs serious competition. The reality is that if we want to regularly compete for Europe and trophies, we need two good players in each position, and good players sometimes have to cost money.

We all know how heavily GSB have invested in the attacking third during their time here, mostly badly, but they also need to be prepared to spend in every position if they want the club to progress.

The problem I feel they've left themselves with two dodgy windows is that there are now a number of priorities across the pitch.

MrsGrey

Left back priority?

I'm bookmarking that!! :-)

OldCastleSwift

It's one of three positions where we'll have insufficient cover in the summer.

100% a priority IMO.

buffybegood

My point is that, if we want 2 good players for each position we need to bring in about 10 players, we need 7 or 8 players just to bring the squad up to the size it should be, without shipping out some players (like Benrahma and Vlasic who surely could be improved on), and I can't see us averaging £25m a player, certainly not for players not in the spine of the team.

CF I can see us spending that or more, likewise (if we qualify for Europe) then a good chunk could go on a quality CM to provide competition and cover to Rice and Soucek (bearing in mind Rice could well be out the door in 2023). If Ogbonna doesn't fully recover back to his previous level I can see Moyes going relatively big at CB again; as fantastically as Dawson has played for the bulk of the season, I suspect he's not Moyes idea of a long term starting CB (and, whilst I appreciate that CBs often peak and play later than other positions, he will be 32 on Friday).

Then there's the fact that, despite paying good money for both Benrahma and Vlasic, neither is a regular starter behind the striker, with Vlasic getting hardly any PL minutes this season. We're extremely reliant on Bowen (who fortunately has had a brilliant season), especially as Fornals standard has slipped, and, although playing better than he has done since his injury, Lanzini isn't exactly doing enough to be a nailed on starter if we had a bit more quality in the attacking positions. If we could offload Benrahma or Vlasic for a decent price, I can see that money and a bit more spent in that area of the pitch, but, at FB, I just can't see it.

So, as much as I agree that we need quality in many positions, and we definitely need a decent LB to come in (Masuaku is one of only 2 players, the other being Diop, that we must get rid of this window, imo), there's no way I can see us blowing £25m on a FB. As far as I know, Masuaku is the most expensive FB we've bought under G&S, at a reported £6.2m, and I can't see us spending more than £10-12m on one (and, in all likelihood it will be considerably less while Cresswell is deemed an acceptable starting LB). I can see us taking a punt on a youngish LB from the Championship or Scotland, or possibly a slightly more seasoned one from an unfashionable European league.

alderz

I don’t understand this idea of “bringing the squad to where it should be”. We’ve had much bigger, much worse squads in the past. Having this smaller squad is working for us, and has been for 2 and a half years. I’m not saying we don’t need any reinforcements at all, but I do think that this idea there needs to be a minimum number is a bit weird.

Yeoldhammer

He can substitute some of those signings through frees though (of course they have a cost attached but it isn't going to run into the transfer fee type amount)

Tarkowski is the obvious one in my opinion.

But he will need to bring in more than we let go ? this has been the case needed for the last 2 years, yet we seem to see more go out the door than come in.

We also have the second oldest squad in the league after Burnley, you couple that with a small squad which is one of the oldest you will hit a ceiling where you need to replace a hefty chunk of the squad all at once with no players behind them to come in on the interim or short term without throwing the U23s in. Which is the roadblock we are kind of hitting now.

At some point Moyes will need a complete overhaul of the squad from top to bottom especially if his ambitions are for West Ham to be a regular competing force in Europe a squad of 18 isn't going to cut it.

thornburyiron

I also don’t see that in terms of actual numbers our squad is that much smaller, if at all, to most clubs. Our problem is that we do not seem to have a squad full of the quality required to maintain a top 6 position regularly.

alderz

thornburyiron said:

I also don’t see that in terms of actual numbers our squad is that much smaller, if at all, to most clubs. Our problem is that we do not seem to have a squad full of the quality required to maintain a top 6 position regularly.

I’ve got a long meeting this morning I don’t need to pay loads of attention in, so I’m going to look at squad sizes and minutes played this morning to test this

OldCastleSwift

thornburyiron said:

I also don’t see that in terms of actual numbers our squad is that much smaller, if at all, to most clubs. Our problem is that we do not seem to have a squad full of the quality required to maintain a top 6 position regularly.

Numbers will be in a problem in the summer. We'll have 18 senior squad members. And that will include Masuaku, Randolph and Diop, who Moyes clearly doesn't see as starters.

Any team wanting to challenge for trophies and Europe needs a good 'shadow eleven'. When out of contract players are released in the summer ours will look something like:

Randolph

Johnson Dawson Diop Masuaku

Coventry Lanzini

Oko-Flex Chesters Vlasic

Perkins


How many of these does Moyes believe to be good enough for the PL? How many does he trust? Based on this season, only three.

So for me it's a case of more numbers and more quality needed.

OldCastleSwift

alderz said:

I don’t understand this idea of “bringing the squad to where it should be”. We’ve had much bigger, much worse squads in the past. Having this smaller squad is working for us, and has been for 2 and a half years. I’m not saying we don’t need any reinforcements at all, but I do think that this idea there needs to be a minimum number is a bit weird.

But there is a minimum number. We know we need a striker. We know we need at least one CM to replace Noble. We know we need to retain/replace Areola.

So there is a minimum requirement, IMO. What's arguable is what that figure should be (personally, I think it's a minimum of six).

OldCastleSwift

The first team squad in June is likely to be:

GK: Fabianski/Randolph
RB: Coufal/Johnson
LB: Cresswell/Masuaku
RCB: Zouma/Dawson
LCB: Ogbonna/Diop
CM: Rice
CM: Soucek
RW: Bowen
AM: Fornals/Lanzini
LW: Benrahma/Vlasic
ST: Antonio

So, as a minimum, I think we need:

Competition for Antonio, Bowen, Rice and Soucek

Upgrades on Randolph and Masuaku.

After that, you could argue we need upgrades on the underperforming players like Diop and Vlasic, and possibly a replacement for Ogbonna given his age and recent injury.

MunichHammer

In Germany the only club I wouldn't put into the category of a selling club is Bayern Munich 🤮.
Even Dortmund or Leipzig can't compete with the pull of Munich and most of the time will sell their best players if Munich comes knocking.

alderz

OldCastleSwift said:

The first team squad in June is likely to be:

GK: Fabianski/Randolph
RB: Coufal/Johnson
LB: Cresswell/Masuaku
RCB: Zouma/Dawson
LCB: Ogbonna/Diop
CM: Rice
CM: Soucek
RW: Bowen
AM: Fornals/Lanzini
LW: Benrahma/Vlasic
ST: Antonio

So, as a minimum, I think we need:

Competition for Antonio, Bowen, Rice and Soucek

Upgrades on Randolph and Masuaku.

After that, you could argue we need upgrades on the underperforming players like Diop and Vlasic, and possibly a replacement for Ogbonna given his age and recent injury.

Whilst I agree that competition for Rice / Soucek would be my preferred outcome, I think it's not as clear cut as "we need competition as a minimum". The manager has shown that he trusts these players to play every week. He brought in competition last summer and Kral has played 1 minute of Premier League football, and Noble has made (I think) 3 starts in the league. Realistically, he's got a first choice pair, one player that he trusts to be the backup, and someone else to sit on the bench in absolute dire emergency. I would personally be very, very surprised to see us sign 2 central midfielders in the summer. I think Conor Coventry replaces Kral in the squad, and I think we maybe sign one CM to replace Noble, but it's possible that we treat Lanzini / Fornals as the extra CM and sign another FW instead.

Jorderz_Moyes_will_be_Moyes

alderz said:

thornburyiron said:

I also don’t see that in terms of actual numbers our squad is that much smaller, if at all, to most clubs. Our problem is that we do not seem to have a squad full of the quality required to maintain a top 6 position regularly.

I’ve got a long meeting this morning I don’t need to pay loads of attention in, so I’m going to look at squad sizes and minutes played this morning to test this

Your company is lucky to have you.

alderz

Jorderz_Moyes_will_be_Moyes said:

alderz said:

thornburyiron said:

I also don’t see that in terms of actual numbers our squad is that much smaller, if at all, to most clubs. Our problem is that we do not seem to have a squad full of the quality required to maintain a top 6 position regularly.

I’ve got a long meeting this morning I don’t need to pay loads of attention in, so I’m going to look at squad sizes and minutes played this morning to test this

Your company is lucky to have you.

You know what, Jordan? I agree

alderz

I was just checking Moyes' Everton dates on Wikipedia, and found this at the end of the 'Everton' section.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Moyes#Everton said:

Some fans at Everton dubbed Moyes "Dithering Dave", criticising what they saw as indecisive management, particularly regarding transfers.[38][39] Another criticism of his eleven years at Everton was his away record against the "Big Four" (the four best Premier League teams of the last decade), Manchester United, Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool. In 43 matches at Old Trafford, Stamford Bridge, Highbury/Emirates Stadium and Anfield, his Everton team failed to win a single gam

buffybegood

alderz said:

I don’t understand this idea of “bringing the squad to where it should be”. We’ve had much bigger, much worse squads in the past. Having this smaller squad is working for us, and has been for 2 and a half years. I’m not saying we don’t need any reinforcements at all, but I do think that this idea there needs to be a minimum number is a bit weird.

We're losing 5 players from the current small squad (Areola and Kral are only loans, Noble, Yarmalenko and Fredericks are out of contract), we've desperately needed a CF for the last 3 windows, and Masuaku and Diop urgently need to be shipped out and improved on.

I know Diop hasn't looked quite as bad in the few recent games, but he's just not good enough, and I think his contract is up next summer so this summer is the last chance to get something back on him. Fredericks though, as long as Masuaku is properly replaced at LB, won't need replacing as we have Johnson and Coufal at RB. Given that Kral, although regularly on the bench, just wasn't used, that's 6 new players (excluding Kral, 7 if you bring in 2 CM), only upgrading the worst 2 that have been used this season and bringing in a CF, for an even smaller squad than this year, and 7 new players if we want the same size squad as this season.

It's all well and good saying we don't need a good quality CM back up to Rice and Soucek, but a lot of us have been saying Soucek hasn't been quite on his game this season. However, there was no chance to not play him as an 80% Soucek was still better than our next best CM. If we want to play in Europe we need good quality cover for all positions, and ones that don't need you to change the way you play because you're shoe-horning a player into a non-natural position.

OldCastleSwift

alderz said:

Whilst I agree that competition for Rice / Soucek would be my preferred outcome, I think it's not as clear cut as "we need competition as a minimum". The manager has shown that he trusts these players to play every week. He brought in competition last summer and Kral has played 1 minute of Premier League football, and Noble has made (I think) 3 starts in the league. Realistically, he's got a first choice pair, one player that he trusts to be the backup, and someone else to sit on the bench in absolute dire emergency. I would personally be very, very surprised to see us sign 2 central midfielders in the summer. I think Conor Coventry replaces Kral in the squad, and I think we maybe sign one CM to replace Noble, but it's possible that we treat Lanzini / Fornals as the extra CM and sign another FW instead.

He might trust them to play every week, but what if they don't perform? Or get injured? What's hurt us this season is not being to effectively replace the players Moyes trusts when they've been injured or out of form.

Coventry probably will replace Kral in the squad, but as well as he's doing in League One, he struggled to impose himself in the Championship. Is he any more ready for the PL than Kral was? I'm not against his inclusion at all, by the way, but with Moyes's record of using youth I wouldn't think he'll get much pitch time.

And the problem with using Lanzini/Fornals as alternates to Rice and Soucek is they're completely different players. What Rice and Soucek bring to the team cannot be replicated by the other two.

Hoping that your 14 trusted players will stay fit and in form for a 50+ game season isn't a great strategy, IMO, so I hope Moyes builds a bigger squad of players that he's actually happy to use.

alderz

I've just looked at Moyes entire Everton career, and the past two seasons with us. He averages a 28 man squad of players that play at least one game a season, but only 19 that feature in 25% of games or more. This season, we have used 30 players, and 20 have played in 25% of games or more. This is the size squad he wants to operate with.

At the other end of the spectrum, an average of 31% of his squad play in 75% of games. This eason, we've had 27%, and last season it was 24%. So he's actually using a larger core group of players than he used to at Everton.

It seems to me that he wants a squad breakdown that looks roughly like this:



Given that, our squad next season probably looks a bit like this:

>90%: Fabianski, Soucek, Rice, Fornals
>75%: Zouma, Cresswell, Bowen, Antonio
>50%: Dawson, Coufal, Ogbonna, Johnson, Lanzini, Benrahma
>25%: Vlasic, Masuaku
>00%: Randolph, Perkins, Ashby, Chesters, Alese, Coventry, Odubeko

Which, if you compare to his regular squad size, is probably about 4 short of what he likes as a minimum.

Pearces_Left_Foot

Realistically we don't have the money to buy 8/10 new players of the right quality. I reckon we will sign 4/5 players and maybe a couple of free transfers . Rumours we are looking at France and Germany to get better value.

alderz

There's a rumour on social media that we are letting Areola go back to PSG, and we have already agreed terms with an English goalkeeper. It's being suggested it's either Nick Pope or Sam Johnstone. If I was a betting man, I would say Johnstone is far more likely. His contract is up in June, whereas Pope has a year to run. Also, it looks like Burnley have a decent shot of staying up, whilst West Brom are likely to stay down another season. And, given he only has a year on his deal, there's a pretty good chance Pope will want to stay at Burnley and see what direction they take under a new manager next season. If it works out, then he might stay longer, if it doesn't he can leave on a free.

OldCastleSwift

The only issue I have with some of the free signings being discussed are their age.

Whist two of those, Lingard and Tarkowski, immediately improve the squad, they themselves will need replacing in 2-3 seasons time. So again it would be a relatively short-term fix.

That said, if we spent the reported £100m on the priority positions (ST, CM, LB), I'd be happy to supplement them with Lingard and Tarkowski.

alderz

I think a lot more players are playing at a high level much older these days than the past. Players are much better at looking after themselves than even 20 years ago, and it's not unlikely to see Tarkowski or Lingard play in the Premier League until they are 35, IMO.

OldCastleSwift

alderz said:

I think a lot more players are playing at a high level much older these days than the past. Players are much better at looking after themselves than even 20 years ago, and it's not unlikely to see Tarkowski or Lingard play in the Premier League until they are 35, IMO.

Tarkowski, I can see, but a lot of Lingard's game relies on pace. Nothing to say he won't maintain it, but once that goes I think he will lose a lot of his effectiveness.

alderz

Quite possibly. I think he's good technically, a good passer and finisher, and his movement is very clever and doesn't just rely on outright speed. But yeah you are right, he could easily drop off if his pace wains.

Fortuneseeker

DM is supposed to want to keep Areola but not at £125k a week. Unsure if Johnstone is a good addition listening to some of the comments he is a tad error prone. Said it before it's all about forward planning which we don't appear to be that good at otherwise we wouldn't need to be looking at several new signings purely this Summer. Could we get the young keeper from St Etienne, who plays for the England Under 21's, as it looks likely they are going to relegated in France. A LB/LCB, CDM plus 2 CF's (one of whom should be a starter IMHO). This doesn't factor in the players we need to replace at the end of this season so it is probably about Eight we need. Could we see a few stepping up from the reserves?

Dodger58

My view is that alongside Lingard and Tarkowski we will have Alese, Baptiste, Okoflex, Chesters, Ekwah and a few more gaining experience and maturing. We need to bring through our own as well, not just buy to fill 'spaces'.

OldCastleSwift

alderz said:

There's a rumour on social media that we are letting Areola go back to PSG, and we have already agreed terms with an English goalkeeper. It's being suggested it's either Nick Pope or Sam Johnstone. If I was a betting man, I would say Johnstone is far more likely. His contract is up in June, whereas Pope has a year to run. Also, it looks like Burnley have a decent shot of staying up, whilst West Brom are likely to stay down another season. And, given he only has a year on his deal, there's a pretty good chance Pope will want to stay at Burnley and see what direction they take under a new manager next season. If it works out, then he might stay longer, if it doesn't he can leave on a free.

I believe that came from something Tony Cottee said in an interview, but Ex has since denied it's true.

The other factor in the Johnstone discussion is, of course, who is agent is.

But I'd be surprised if a) Moyes didn't want to keep Areola and b) Areola wouldn't be prepared to drop his demands for a longer PL stay.

If we let him go and sign Johnstone, then I'd question whether Moyes is in charge of transfers, to be honest.