The UK is Out - New PM - and whither now for Article 50

NEoldiron

Madcap, your post says it all. Thanks for the clarification. If only everything was as simple. ;wink

Tomw85

NEoldiron said:

TW85

"So far the fallout from the vote is actually less than I expected."
I suggest you follow some of the links I've posted to see just how hard it is going to be just to get the economy back to where it was before the referendum.

"Rather than an EU based free trade and human/workers rights I would like to see a world wide set of standards set up to benefit all."
I think that place is called Utopia. As soon as you involve USA you can forget about workers' rights.

"I am all for free trade, and even free movement of labour but for me these benefits were slowly being eroded by the direction that the EU is ultimately heading in."
Firstly, so you agree then that free movement of labour is a benefit.
Secondly, can you explain why you think these benefits are being eroded.

NE I have been reading a wide range of media reports (mostly bad) as well as the links you have posted and the ones I get daily from my sister too. I still had expected that the potential fallout could have been a lot worse. I work in property in London and was very worried how that might be affected, but so far there has been minimal fallout that I am seeing personally. Yes it is too early to fully understand the full ramifications, but equally there was also a drop due to panic which may also correct itself and show in time that the damage may be less than forecast (I live in eternal hope).

Re the USA - there are many issues there that need addressing as well as workers rights, health care, and gun control to name a couple but their voters seem to not want these things. This is the problem with democracy, you cannot force things on a population if they do not want them even if they may be better for it. But what better system do we have to help us make the world a better place?

Free movement of labour is a benefit, free movement of people though has knock on effects that need to be considered and should be a subject that can be discussed without people being branded racist or equally using it as an excuse to be racist. We couldn't actually cope if all of the people in the world who are in desperate need all turned up at once seeking our help. We should look to address the issues causing mass movement of people whilst doing what we can for those really in need, however that is no small issue to be able to sort out and again there is no easy solution. I do not think that the EU's open door policy was the right decision, however I do 100% agree that we do need to help and that we should be looking at all options.

OutcastLondoner

The EU doesn't have an open-door policy on refugees though. It's taken in a tiny amount.

Most of the world's refugees are in countries like Lebanon, Turkey, Jordan, Pakistan, Kenya, Bangladesh, Nepal etc.

If more of the world had regional free movement policies like the EU, that would ease refugee and migrant crises. A lot of the people deemed economic migrants these days are actually climate refugees. From areas completely destroyed so they're having to move away. If the borders of nation states weren't restricting them, we could have greater regional movement rather than having these long journeys. Borders are outdated, countries think they can lock themselves behind their own borders and protect themselves but they only exacerbate problems. Especially in regions where the borders were drawn up in a lunch time or with a ruler.

TheMadcapLaughs

NEoldiron said:

Madcap, your post says it all. Thanks for the clarification. If only everything was as simple. ;wink

NE perhaps everything is as simple. I think you will find that as human beings we are tending to over complicate things. Muddy the waters with rules, regulations, layers of bureaucracy, committees, sub committees, quangos, focus groups, town councils, borough councils, county councils, central government, local government, the european parliament, the european council, the european commission, the local mayor, the regional police commissioner, a new mayor for norfolk and suffolk (hurrah), etc etc etc etc. I voted out as I personally would like a change, a radical change. We are being conned. I look at things from an anarcho-communist perspective, I hate men in grey suits, the less of them the better, the less of their piffle the better. You can put as many links to as many experts as you like. I like to think and do as I like, not what the socially and morally corrupt people at the top say. I don`t care if the FTSE100 goes up down or side ways, I don`t care if property in London is losing a thousand pounds a day, I, as a free thinking individual have had enough of the status quo, enough of the mind numbingly pointless drivel that comes from the mouths of politicians. I said pages and pages back, the european parliament can disappear first and then lets start looking at the wasters and chancers in this country. If you want any confirmation that the old boys club is alive and kicking have a look at Camerons resignation honours list. The only reason I can see to vote remain is to uphold and strengthen further the current system, not for me I`m afraid. Like you say NE, if only everything in life was as simple. Well perhaps it can and should be. ;wink

NEoldiron

AKA I don't know whether you want me to reply to your post if, as you say, you're off here for good.
But on the off chance that you'll be curious enough to check, I'll ask you this - how is it disrespectful and how am I preaching?
I am simply posting, from various informed sources, opinions, comments, forecasts etc. on the fallout of the Brexit vote. Unfortunately, they all seem to be negative. If that's painful, you've made your bed, now lie in it.
This is not something as trivial as a football result. This is something that will affect millions of lives for possibly a generation, and not for the better. If you leavers think you're not going to be reminded of this, then think again.
And if that is what you call preaching, I suggest you go to a church or temple or mosque to hear what preaching really is.

Madcap, I hear what you're saying, it probably worked for a while back in much earlier times, but I think it's too late to turn back the millennia.

Outcast ;ok

PrestonHammer

How do you know that in the long term it won't be better? You can't possibly know that. You are coming across as very bitter. Brexit is happening, regardless.

thornburyiron

NE that's all they are, opinions. If you want to spend every waking moment trawling anything and everything to find all the negative comments or postings you can then that's fine by me.
I'm sure any positive articles you claim to be ficticious.
Nobody at all knows what the outcome will be.

grey_til_I_dye

Preston

Personally, I am bitter about both the outcome, and the way it was reached.

You're right that I can't know what the long term effects will be for certain, but I strongly doubt they will be so much better than things would have been that the inevitable short to mid-term consequences will be worth it.

NEoldiron

Thorn, actually nothing would please me more than to be eventually proved wrong, so if you find any positive articles, please post them. I won't even mind if you gloat ;biggrin
For your information, I don't spend "every waking moment trawling anything and everything to find all the negative comments or postings I can". I only have to open my homepage (BBC) and read what I see there or follow a link.

I want the UK to be a united, successful place to live with a thriving economy, a well functioning NHS and a fair and equal society.
I just don't think that we will achieve it this way any time in the near future and all the articles that you refer to seem to agree with that.

PrestonHammer

NEoldiron

The first sentence in your second paragragh, I totally agree with you. I am 100% in agreement with you.

The second sentence in that same paragraph is where you and me disagree and feel in the near future it can't be done.

This is where we differ, I feel in the near, to possible future, things could be different, where we could meet in the middle, things could be different.

The thing is, we won't know for definite for a good few years.

For now, we will have to disagree to disagree. ;ok

Tomw85

NE below is a link to what I believe is a positive story follow the referendum. For me this shows that our government still very much want to support and boost our economy where they can:

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/aug/13/philip-hammond-treasury-eu-grants-investment-fund-projects

IronHerb

Sorry Tom but all he is doing is underwriting the European grants already in place.

Tomw85

Herb, my limited understanding is that we pay X to the EU and then get Y back in the areas that they want to fund. We then have Z which as the UK is a net contributor to the EU means that X is bigger than Y hence we are actually down on our investment.

If we are to fund Y ourselves but no longer have to pay X then Z changes from a - to a + and we will then have these funds spare to also invest in our infrastructure/economy.

Add to that the fact that we will then also be in control of the funding of Y we will have the power to amend/change this should the markets change allowing us more freedom to adapt to an ever changing world.

To me this is a positive, and to a lot of remainers they said that fear of losing funding for sciences etc was a negative. Well this is now one negative that they can cross off their long list.

NEoldiron

TW85, won't this now leave less to put back into the NHS?

Tomw85

NE I was never one of the people who thought that the whole 350m we will apparently save each week would go to the NHS. For me it was that we would have an extra 350m which we could put towards it. The NHS needs more funding and I hope it gets it, but at the same time it also needs reform as temp agencies are ripping it off!

Are you not happy to hear this reported then as it's not money for the NHS?

NEoldiron

TW85, yes I am glad to hear it because one of my concerns was that funding for science and research would be lost.
The point is though that it further reduces the value of the leavers' promises made before the referendum.

Tomw85

If you are referring to the NHS then I iwll just say that not all leavers voted to leave off the back of that so called promise, just as not all remainers voted to remain because George Osbourne threatend tax rises.

But I am glad that I have found a story that we can both agree is a positive. I hope that there will be more, not to say I told you so but because it will mean that we as a country are doing something that people of both sides of the debate are happy about.

AdMeus_CaputFilius

http://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/topstories/brexit-boom-the-five-charts-which-show-britain-has-escaped-an-economic-apocalypse/ar-BBvOeTN?li=BBoPOOl

So, being a bit more patient and not believing all the hype (either positive or negative) that the headless chicken media have been spouting since the leave vote, and based on what I was hearing in the course of my work, I was prepared to wait for some hard evidence rather than speculation - here is some info based on actual facts since and none of it is anywhere near what the 'Expert' doom mongers predictions. Strange how the remain orientated Media have not been highlighting this much, I am sure if it had been bad news, we would have had it rammed down our throats every news bulletin with more warnings of woe and bad times to come from 'Expert' speculationists.

As was always the case put forward by leave, there would be some impact but not anywhere near the mega- recession predicted, but some of this actually flies in the face of what they said and is completely the opposite. The only real negative is the value of the pound/exchange rates which seem to have become a bit more stable recently, so with less uncertainty now due to the figures in the article, provided it continues there is no reason these should not make a bit of a recovery in not to distant future.

There was another report about record numbers of student getting university places after the 'A' level results, so the predicted crash there was also wide of the mark. Also apart form the Luxury end, the housing market/prices are still increasing with more first time buyers than in recent years (you can find the reports if you look on line).

** this post does not reflect the way this poster voted for the referendum. My view is we voted, there was a result so lets move on. What I am pretty peeved at is rather than take this view and work together to get the best outcome, some sections of the Media (Agenda maybe?) have been very vocal in speculating and predicting a massive disaster for the UK and its economy, almost as if they were trying to talk it into happening to prove themselves right - this has not happened and is looking less likely (see last paragraph of the article re: Moody's) but none have yet (to my knowledge) admitted they and the experts even 'might' have got it wrong.

IronHerb

I hear what your saying AdMeus but it's only 2 months after the vote and we are still in Europe so any issues we have to face are still ahead of us imo.
On the student / uni front it's my understanding that from this year entry numbers are no longer restricted so that unis can accept as many students as they can get their hands on.

grey_til_I_dye

AdMeus

But the falling pound would be the only immediate indicator - I'm not sure how data a month or two after the vote, and before the UK leaves the EU, can be used to show there will not be a negative economic outcome.

I'm not sure where you get the idea that the pound has become more stable, unless you mean it has fallen so low it can't go much further.

This is the last 30 days rate:



The pound has lost 12% against the Euro since the vote.

Given that we have a trade deficit with the EU, that is going to have an impact.

simonc

As anything made in the UK is now 12% cheaper would you not expect an increase in UK exports to Europe?

grey_til_I_dye

Not necessarily.

AdMeus_CaputFilius

The point of the post was in regards to claims that there was no positive news from leaving, the only news and articles were from experts prophesising the demise of the UK economy and UK in general, jobs being lost, trade suffering, companies moving to mainland Europe etc. etc., so the early evidence is this is not happening as yet - which is what leave were saying all along, whilst the vast majority of the remain media (an some of the more vocal remain supporters - not necessarily posting on this forum), would have us believe that by now we would be half way to a major recession, unemployment rising, inflation going through the roof and what ever else.

Rather than leading their business news with this positive report, the BBC went with yet another 'expert speculationist' article on 'what brexit MIGHT mean for the City' (financial in London). I am certain the BBC have an agenda for pushing the more remain view, I think they are doubly disappointed that they got it wrong and I think they actually believe the view that all those who vote leave are 'not as intelligent and lack understanding of the real issues' - which unfortunately (IMO) does come across when some of the higher profile hosts have discussions on their shows.

Grey, I understand your point, but before the vote all the financial 'experts' though the pound was overvalued by around 10% anyway - but as I said, now that Moody's (one of if not the most influential Agency in it's field) has stated it does not now think the UK will have a recession due to leaving the EU, and with these figures some of the uncertainty that drove the value down are now a lot less so providing the UK can keep control of its finances (and maybe improve them), there is no reason not to expect the pound to rise again over time.

SimonC - Unfortunately the official Gov. data for July is not available until Sept 9th (next release date), the August information only goes as far as June. However, from personal experience of the companies I visits all can tell you is the following:

There has been a slow down in some industries (Construction, Some Service industries such as Facilities Management etc.) but this is because there has been a temporary stop on investment until some of the uncertainty settles down. So it is not that the investment is not there, just that it is not being released as yet, so this is holding up some contract renewals or new that have been tendered for. There is some confidence that the funds will start to be release just before or just after Christmas 2016.

For those Companies that export, it is not necessarily to the EU but the rest of the world where the increase has been, mainly due to the fall in value of the pound. A good number are reporting record sales in the last few months because although exchange rates make it cheaper, their customer are ordering more.

Dodger58

One, please to see you didn't get (or believe) "the memo" ;dog

AdMeus_CaputFilius

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/08/23/belgium-offers-olive-branch-on-brexit-calls-for-north-sea-union/


So now a bit of reality has set in and the EU can see that being hard line about the exit deal could damage them as much or even more so than the UK (with what is happening over there already re: short time working and shut downs in some industries) ...... so maybe we will be getting a much better deal than may thought.

Hammerex

AdMeus_CaputFilius said:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/08/23/belgium-offers-olive-branch-on-brexit-calls-for-north-sea-union/


So now a bit of reality has set in and the EU can see that being hard line about the exit deal could damage them as much or even more so than the UK (with what is happening over there already re: short time working and shut downs in some industries) ...... so maybe we will be getting a much better deal than may thought.

I agree, it would be better for both sides to work together.

Yeoldhammer

Unfortunately Belgium have zero weight. Germany and Junior partner France will decide the outcome.

ASLEFshrugged

Yeold - I suspect the French might disagree they are anyone's junior partner, especially Germany's (1940, 1914, 1870, etc.)

NEoldiron

Sorry for resurrecting this but we now have a date for Brexit.
This is a little amusing:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/sep/29/brexit-royal-yacht-britannia-eu ;biggrin

MrsGrey

Ooh, a yacht, you say? ;hmm