Brexit: the next stage. Deal or No Deal? (and the General Election)

madridhammer

I agree re the above comments about UKIP. I think this is a smart move by May,Labour are in disarray & her Brexit strategy seems to have taken the sting out of UKIP.I've never voted Lib Dem in my life but I'm seriously considering doing so(I live in Madrid so I'm obviously anti-Brexit).I think many people will do the same but at the moment I can see no further than a Tory victory-& I've never voted for them in my life either!

ASLEFshrugged

madridhammer said:

I agree re the above comments about UKIP. I think this is a smart move by May,Labour are in disarray & her Brexit strategy seems to have taken the sting out of UKIP.I've never voted Lib Dem in my life but I'm seriously considering doing so(I live in Madrid so I'm obviously anti-Brexit).I think many people will do the same but at the moment I can see no further than a Tory victory-& I've never voted for them in my life either!

The Lib Dems are optimistic after winning Richmond Park, they're resurgent in their old stronghold of the West Country and will be looking to regain seats they lost to the Tories that voted Remain in the South and in London.

baracks_a_hammer

And they have be a leader who wanted a second referendum on brexit?? Quite ironic for a leader whose party has the word "democrats" in their name.

ASLEFshrugged

baracks_a_hammer said:

And they have be a leader who wanted a second referendum on brexit?? Quite ironic for a leader whose party has the word "democrats" in their name.

Why? Just because there's a vote for something it doesn't mean you have to accept it and stop opposing it if you feel its wrong. Nothing is ever over, the is no "in the end".

baracks_a_hammer

Why?

Because like it or not the referendum was a democratic vote.

Clearly in the lib dems view there should keep on being more votes until they get the result they want

ASLEFshrugged

Clacton is going to be a lot of fun.

Douglas Carswell, ex-Tory, ex-UKIP, now sitting as an independent
Aaron Banks, ex-UKIP money man, standing as an independent pro-Leave candidate
UKIP will want their own candidate, maybe they could tempt Farage out of retirement
And the Tories will obviously be looking to win the seat back.

Getting awfully crowded on the right side of the political spectrum......

ASLEFshrugged

baracks_a_hammer said:

Why?



Because like it or not the referendum was a democratic vote.



Clearly in the lib dems view there should keep on being more votes until they get the result they want

so was the General Election, we have those at regular intervals because people change their minds and vote for someone else. The Lib Dems are as much entitled to call for a second Referendum as the SNP are to call for theirs, if it then delivers a Remain vote UKIP and the rest are equally entitled to call for a third Referendum.

Nothing is set in stone, apart from Ed Miliband's reliance on bad PR advice......

Yeoldhammer

Judging by my Facebook. So the majority of my age group of people in the 25 - 30 section seem to be deadlocked on backing Labour or full on switching to Lib Dem off the back off an Anti Brexit movement. All think its a Conservative Majority Win though and we are Doomed XD

baracks_a_hammer

Completely different the general election and the eu referendum

The remainers would I suspect not be claiming the original vote was advisory had the result gone the other way..

ASLEFshrugged

A week before the Referendum Farage said

In a 52-48 referendum this would be unfinished business by a long way. If the remain campaign win two-thirds to one-third that ends it

If he wasn't going to give up why should the Lib Dems?

baracks_a_hammer

Pointless question now the bill has been passed and the article triggered?

MrsGrey

There was a referendum in 1975 on EU membership.

Not sure why we needed another... unless those who weren't happy with the result thought it a good idea to keep going until they got the result they wanted. ;wink

baracks_a_hammer

The general election will be about the "type" of brexit not brexit happening v not IMO

horshamhammer

He's never specifically said so (as far as I know) but I suspect Corbyn is a Brexiteer himself. I think most hardcore Remainers will vote Lib Dem. Expect a 100+ majority for the Tories whatever happens.

ASLEFshrugged

A lot of Labour left were anti-EU because it supports competition in and privatisation of public services, that was why Bob Crow formed the TUSC as a left wing alternative to UKIP.

My union backed Leave along with RMT, Unite and others.

MrsGrey

billy ;ok

The Tory party has always pushed back against workers rights. Once out of the EU, they will quickly set about rolling back protections and rights as far and as fast as they can.

Anyone who thinks thinks otherwise is (no matter what the PM or any other Tory says) closing their eyes to the lessons of history and refusing to see the reality that is staring them in the face.

They'll try (as they always do) to brand it as good for the economy and growth, with the (false) implication that all will benefit.

Whitehorsehammer

I have never been a member of a political party but I have just paid £70 and joined the Lid Dems. They have consistently been the most pro European party so my hope is that many of those that did not want to leave will back them on June 8th. The 48% need a voice that will not be shouted down by noisy brexiteers and anti EU press. A Hard Brexit is not the way forward and other options need to be heard.

Clactonite

ASLEFshrugged said:

Clacton is going to be a lot of fun.

;wave ;wahoo ;nolan

MrsGrey

clacton - all round yours, then? ;beer ;redwine ;champagne ;nolan ;barrera ;wahoo

ASLEFshrugged

billybondsbeard said:

There are 2 things at work here - the Tory right and the Media barons seeing Brexit as a way to push workers rights back to pre 1930's levels making any industrial action illegal,(especially those affecting infrastructure and transport !)

In 1926 we had the General Strike, the largest single industrial action in British history, putting workers rights back to pre 1930's levels would be removing the restrictions placed on unions under Thatcher! Making all industrial action illegal for specific groups of workers would lead to the return of Wildcat strikes where members act without union approval.

billybondsbeard said:

and a steady dilution of the NHS. - It is already happening in my opinion.

It's been happening for over a quarter of a century, starting with the introduction of the "internal market" under the NHS & Community Care Act 1990.

ASLEFshrugged

Maybe 1834 when the Tollpuddle Martyrs were transported to Australia for forming a union ;wink

claretandbluesky

This election will be like no other and I feel TM has taken a bigger gamble than she likely imagines. She should win and should increase her majority, but lets make no mistake this is really a vote on Brexit rather than a general election, and this is where it has the potential to surprise everyone. Will many of the brexit voting constituencies vote Tory because they want brexit knowing they will likely get more austerity and have to watch the NHS be run down further. Will Labour voting places support Corbyn, someone who beyond the Labour party membership is viewed by many as hopeless and a leftist experiment at the time it is least needed, or will they shift to Lib Dem in hope of producing a brexit that suits them or reversing it altogether eventually?

It is my view that whoever can prevent the brexit or remain vote fragmenting least will do very well, and can Labour prevent a diluting of their vote to the Lib Dems? can the tories prevent UKIP splitting the strong brexit vote? There will be shocks and they will come fast and some big names well may lose their seats. In my town the Tory MP has won since before I would have been able to vote, yet it was a strong remain town producing a decisive remain vote. I think our MP may for the first time ever get a little worried.

Yeoldhammer

Tory sweep in my opinion. SNP to win another election to push indyref2. Sinn Feinn to push the DUP and push towards a referendum.

ASLEFshrugged

This election is about Theresa May and nothing else, she wants to silence the opposition within the Tory party by increasing the small majority she inherited from Cameron. It could go one of three ways and all of them have their downsides

1) large Tory majority. Corbyn resigns, the Labour MPs do not allow a left wing candidate to stand like they did with Corbyn, a moderate/Blairite/soft Tory leader elected who wins the approval of Murdoch and the rest of the media.

2) small Tory majority. Corbyn resigns etc. but her opponents in the Tory party are still on her case and possibly calling for her resignation for failing to deliver a big enough win

3) Tories lose. May resigns.

May has announced there aren't going to be any TV debates, that makes her look scared to discuss the issues.

alderz

I think the advantage that the Tories have is that the left is divided between a number of different camps. Personally I am already split between Labour / LD / Green. We know UKIP support has dropped, and that has likely moved to the Tories. Unless one of LD and Labour come out with a very clear and unifying plan, I can see it being massively split and the Tories romping it.

OutcastLondoner

I think any election fought so shortly after its announcement is pretty flawed, democratically.

everhopeful

OutcastLondoner said:

I think any election fought so shortly after its announcement is pretty flawed, democratically.

Is it particularly short? In the days before the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, they were always timed by the incumbent party to catch the others on the hop unless they were limping on to the last possible moment, knowing they were going to lose.

Vorselaarhammer

If I was Lib Dem I would focus my entire campaign on being the opposite of UKIP>.

A high 40% of the country voted to stay, for me this would actually be a situation where I would vote for a 1 idea party.

Even if they lose there will still be a party with some of the strong ideals to fight for in the Parliament.

50% of the Tories want Exit / Labour is a Mess (+ unions like Exit) / SNP is a 1 idea Party / UKIP is a 1 idea party.

We need one Party that supports the 40%....

Vorselaarhammer

BTW not a surprise an election was called for, in my various discussions I have been predicting this will happen.

And I think baracks summed it up very well with this post.

"The general election will be about the "type" of brexit not brexit happening v not IMO"

ASLEFshrugged

Vorselaarhammer said:

If I was Lib Dem I would focus my entire campaign on being the opposite of UKIP>.

A high 40% of the country voted to stay, for me this would actually be a situation where I would vote for a 1 idea party.

Even if they lose there will still be a party with some of the strong ideals to fight for in the Parliament.

50% of the Tories want Exit / Labour is a Mess (+ unions like Exit) / SNP is a 1 idea Party / UKIP is a 1 idea party.

We need one Party that supports the 40%....

Actually most unions backed Remain including the big three, Unison, Unite (I know, I got it wrong earlier) and GMB, officially only RMT, ASLEF and the bakers union BFAWU backed Leave.

The Lib Dems will focus on winning back constituencies where the Remain vote was strong that they lost in 2010 and 2015 or where they traditionally come second. They're not going to have much success trying to win in constituencies where they've not had much support before.

Having won Richmond Park back they'll be aiming at the other seats in the leafier bits of South West London and out into Surrey, Sussex, etc. Who knows they might even win Maidenhead (53.9% Remain) and then Theresa May will be out!