The UK is Out - New PM - and whither now for Article 50
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Comments
For me the strategy is remain not because I love the EU although in principle I like the original idea. However at this moment the EU is being tested due to the natural faults of a common currency in the Euro and differing needs and agendas of member states. Within this club 0f 28 members we sat with the second best performing economy, outside of the Euro and it's obligations with a veto and opt outs concerning euro bailouts and non EU immigration.
So for me if you take out emotion and sentiment the strategy is wait and see what happens from an insulated place of control. The EU will either change greatly to survive meaning new treaty change which will need our approval, a time at which we can ask for things in return. Should it simply untangle we are best positioned anyhow due to not being bound to the Euro to make the best of it. We can also leave at anytime in the future we wish by triggering article 50.
Things in the UK are how they are due to austerity to a large extent in my view and not so much due to immigration (although there are serious issues due to that), but not so much so that you would adopt the path we have at present if strategically working in the interests of the nation as a whole. In all nations the economy is the means through which the nation prospers or fails, if our economy falters public services will be cut again and again, Boris will be OK but the working man will hurt.
What I ask of my brexit friends when having this debate is what is your strategy and the best strategies end up only with the economy just about staying where it is and reliant on so many things going our way, and most are so outlandish and rely upon us being able to do exactly as Boris said, we go to the EU and say we want free market membership but control of immigration, we don't want EU law and we don't believe we should pay anything to the EU....... and they say yes because Germany wants to sell us cars and France wants to sell us cheese. It's at that point I become very anti referendum as a way of deciding the countries course.
However, the EU has other purposes, and if you judge it by some of these, it is a success.
Furthermore, as I suspect you also know, there are many factors which lead to differing economic situations between different states. Not least, geography, geology and weather, which the EU can't really do much about.
Finally, even if we accept the premise of your argument, couldn't we equally say that it is a blooming miracle that certain countries have avoided bankruptcy given their circumstances, and so well done EU! ;wink
The wrong decision for the wrong reasons.
*Assuming you are right about their motives.
I think most people want the same things. Peace, happiness good health, to feel safe etc, etc, it`s just that due to the complexities and misfirings of the human brain we seek different ways of achieving them. And yes, I would love to be able, in the future, to sit in my open top Mercedes on Aldeburgh seafront, sipping chilled Italian Pinot, whilst eating some long crusty bread and brie, I just hope that these finer things will still be available to us. If not it will have to be the Hillman Imp with a bottle of mild and a spam sandwich.
I just have a huge problem with politicians and levels upon levels of bureaucracy. And I find it hard to fathom when people from Remain complain about Boris and his bus, Farage and his squinty eyes, Gove and his disappearing chin and the lies that they spout. And Brexiters complain about Osborne, Cameron and project fear, and Sadiq and his independent state of London, and all the other prophets of doom (and the lies that they spout) and then who do we look to, who do we turn to now Brexit may be a reality. The same people we KNOW lied to us only weeks ago. And what makes it worse, these liars representing us are talking to politicians and bureaucrats from the other side of the water who themselves undoubtedly lie, cheat and steal to maintain their slippery grip on the little bit of power they possess.
As I say, most people want the same things in life, I have just lost faith over the years in the ability of the current system, and the tens of thousands of people that run it, to successfully deliver what most people want. You only have to watch the news every night to see that the World isn`t working, and it`s not you and I that cause or want the famine, death, destruction, war, and inequality that dominate most broadcasts, and I`m not saying that (most) governments crave famine, death and destruction, but who else is there to blame. West Ham keep losing, Bilic gets the sack. World keeps imploding? perhaps we should try something different. I don`t want to punch Putin on the nose, never met the bloke, but if Hilary wants to flex American muscle........................
I`m just so bored of the status quo. No one is EVER taught about alternatives, kids are never taught to question authority (I know that sounds mad) why would they be. We (from a very early age) blindly accept what we are taught and told and are never given the alternate view. I stumbled upon "the alternate view" as a 13 year old through Punk, and was lucky enough a few years later to have an Anarchist as a lecturer (economics) who encouraged us to read economists and philosophers from that perspective as well as mainstream.
What that taught me is NO-ONE has all the answers and NO-ONE is perfect, we are human after all, but to aim for freedom, for equality, for peace and a World free from exploitation and oppression is worth striving for. Unfortunately, the World we live in seems to accept these inequalities as natural and for the most part a necessity to perpetuate the Capitalist way. They don`t openly admit this of course but Government and religious structures and moralities are structured to keep us keeping on accepting.
Now I must apologise for the soap box thingy.
Oh and COYI, roll on saturday, and lets smash the mackems (metaphorically speaking of course).
So I can't understand how you can blame governments (ie, folks) for all the horrors and failures of the word today, but somehow think that 'ordinary folks' are not just as much a mixture of vices and virtues and wouldn't mess up just as much if there was some other system in place.
What a good idea.
Oh. Yeah, that's right. ;doh
While I can indeed look at some World leaders and tell me they are not vain and egotistical. I can look at others see the opposite.
For me, there are too many generalisations underpinning your argument for me to go along with it.
Having said that, I'm not saying democracy (ie everyone gets a vote, and we elect and empower an executive to get on and do stuff that needs to be done at a centralised level) doesn't have its failings.
I'd like to see the current system amended in its details.
But I can't really see any alternative that convinces me it would be more effective, in a global world.
Unless you want to put me in charge. ;biggrin
Trump has been banging on about his beautiful wall that will allow him to control immigration and yet in the U.K. We already have a wall, it is at least 22miles across and I have yet to meet anyone whose feet can touch the bottom.
If we really wanted to make control of our borders a top priority, then surely we could do so and I really do not see what the continental Europeans could frankly do about it.
I do believe that the major EU partners did not want to see us leave the trading block and whilst I think that immigration was a major factor driving the vote in favor of leaving, I remain unconvinced that it needed to be.
Just my tuppence worth
Unfortunately it has become political now and that is where the problem is found. The EU cannot be seen to allow us to cherry pick and gain through our referendum result as all would follow us in doing so, whilst the Govt are afraid that the brexiters will burn the country if not allowed there victory however pyrrhic. In my view this is the problem, how to solve the political conundrum, I would have preferred May to approach that way rather than brexit means brexit. It may still happen but only once she has surrendered her leverage by triggering article 50. I may happen through leaving in that we pay a lump for market access and only lose our veto's opt outs and voice, only.
I am interested in listening and suspect others may be too - whether we agree on the content and any assumptions/outcomes or not is irrelevant ;wink
This is an interesting article on nationalism/patriotism. And As Preston says above, we do seem to be repeating the same mistakes. And Dodger, thanks for the link above, should be interesting.
It`s funny, but I am in no way patriotic as such, but am strangely "proud" to be English/British, perhaps proud is the wrong word, but I like/love living in Britain and generally like/love the British sense of humour.
I certainly don't consider being English is in any way better than being German or French, Brazilian or Japanese, its just the place you happened to be born.
Just watching TV and saw that Wallonia (the French speaking part of Belgium) has blocked the EU trade deal with Canada. Let that sink in when you Brexiteers think trade negotiations will be a walk in the park. Not a country but a part of one has said NON!
And, please, you dreamers get in the world as it actually is not as we would all like it to be.
As someone on here said, it's the economy that determines a country's future-if the first tanks so does the second.
The problem is a political one in how does she politically avoid doing something that no one would contemplate strategically were it not for that referendum. How do you politically get around the referendum result?
Her best chance is if the country tanks and it becomes so ridiculously obvious it's not a good idea, or less likely the EU offer an alternative. Will that happen before March? Mark Hill the GB representative who resigned his role the day after Brexit said today that many in the EU don't think it will happen, I personally think that is because they cannot believe a country in our position would ever do that to itself.
I think she knows she would lose a vote in the commons, the house of lords and even through referendum now, it was a case of one moment in time and now what? not one Brexit politician has come up with a coherent strategy that leads to a better position than before, and all there hopes rely on other people allowing us things.
Politicians like Cameron need learn politics is not a game, and the nation should come before party politics.
If that makes me strange then so be it.
;scarveng
Up the Hammers!
This is a genuine request for info/background as it is not a topic I have followed very closely.
So far, as I understand it, China is able to export really really cheap steel to the EU as a result of its govt basically giving subsidies to their steel producers which enable them to sell (effectively) at a loss.
This is making it very difficult for EU steel producers to compete, with the result that companies (including British companies) are losing contracts, or having to accept much lower prices, and so cut staff, cut wages.. even go out of business etc.
That sounds bad.
So the EU has been discussing a change to its tariff rules to try to impose higher tariffs on Chinese steel, which will limit 'dumping' and be good for British steel producers.
But the UK government (under Cameron and now May) are blocking these changes.
What is the rationale?
Promised myself I would stay out of this but - my view is that the EU will fail because the interests of individual states will always overide the the will of the EU and those individual states have the power of veto. Unless and until the individual states are prepared to become a truly single federal entity ruled by a single government this will just continue and the EU will become unmanageable.
I spent many years working in Hungary and Romania - I'm convinced that these countries will always put the interests of their state first and will not willingly subjugate themselves to rule from Brussels (or Berlin) - why would they, they have been there before, and they have long memories.
And if you are looking for real World solutions, to real World problems here and now check out Abdullah Ocalan and what is happening in a place called Rojava. And if you want to know what can be achieved by local people, google Cheran, Mexico. Just because the World is "as it is" now, in this moment in time doesn`t make it right and doesn`t mean it`s how it will always be. I don`t think the EU as an all encompassing super power is the right way or the most efficient way to go about things, and perhaps a seven year negotiation that needs to accommodate and satisfy the requirements of such a diverse populous, only to fail at the very last proves the point.